How big is the ‘next big thing’? Estimating the burden of non–communicable diseases in low– and middle–income countries

December 2012 • Vol. 2 No. 2 • 020101 1 www.jogh.org • doi: 10.7189/jogh.02.020101 Over the past year the pandemic of non–communicable diseases (NCDs) has become a key focus of global political agenda. At the United Nations' high–level meeting on the prevention and control of NCDs in September 2011, a general consensus has been reached that NCDs were already the leading causes of death in all world regions and that their burden is increasing rapidly [1]. The rate of this increase is particularly striking in low– and middle–income countries (LMICs), where life expectancy is increasing as a result of improved socio–economic conditions [2]. It is expected that by the year 2030, NCDs could become responsible for 52 million deaths [3]. In LMICs, health systems will face considerable challenge in adjusting to the rapidly growing demand for services, and this could in turn become an additional significant barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals [2]. As a result, many parallel advocacy efforts for tackling NCDs are taking place, with a particular focus on heart disease, cancer, respiratory diseases, diabetes and stroke [4]. A number of interventions have been outlined that could have immediate preventive effect and slow down the pandemic, such as tobacco control, improved diet, exercise and decreased alcohol intake [4].